Every startup hub is overhyped compared to Silicon Valley, but a $100-$200 million exit for a todo list app maker certainly makes it slightly less over-hyped.
That would put their sell price at $10-$20 per user. Is that going rate for something like that? I'm pretty out of the loop on SaaS business pricing. Seems high, to me, since the vast majority of their users are using the free version. Certainly their paid users are worth a lot more than that (at $5/month, they're worth a couple hundred bucks). And, I guess growth also needs to be factored in; if they're on track to have, say, 20 million users next year, then the price starts looking more and more reasonable.
So, yeah, I guess it's not that outrageous, even if it is "just" a todo list app (it's a pretty nice one, though; I use it and mostly really like it).
I imagine a good chunk of that value is being placed on the team they acquired. They're a proven mobile dev shop with a well recognized name in an "up and coming" Berlin startup scene, who already have a major success under their belts. I'm also sure a sizeable percentage of the amount isn't cash but options with 2-4 year vesting periods. edit: also often the team salaries over the course of that period are included in the amount.
$100 million is not a "buying it for the team" kind of price. This is a pretty small shop and you can hire a lot of top-notch developers for $100 million.
They've gotta be expecting some kind of value out of this. The theory that Microsoft is trying to buy their way into being relevant in the mobile market seems pretty sound, especially based on other announcements, investments and acquisitions they've made recently.
But, yeah, you're probably right about options being a big part of the price, but Microsoft options are still pretty valuable. Almost as good as real money.
I remember after their initial success with the free app they took investment, and were valued at about $50m (2010?). Then they tried to ship an enterprise product but it never got any traction. They refocused on the Wunderlist again.