If you don't understand what you're modelling, you won't create an accurate model.

For programmers, we create an approximation to the real world and then refine the model as we (or the users) come across the imperfections.

Unfortunately, Nate probably still doesn't know how much he doesn't know.

> But there was almost certainly some bad luck for Brazil. It had more shots than Germany in the match

Comparing number of shots (or possession) is a bad metric if the playing styles are different.