Not really. If pay decreases it's because you're not required anymore or less, which is contrary to what has been shown. IF educating and enabling juniors etc. is not handled correctly, then senior pay will explode, because whilst they are much more efficient, their inherent knowledge is required to produce sustainable results.
> If pay decreases it's because you're not required anymore or less
Not necessarily, there are many factors at play here which are downplayed. The first one is education: LLMs are going to significantly improve skill training. Arguably, it is already happening. So the gap between you and a middev will get narrower. At the same time, candidates who can be as good as you will increase.
While you can argue that you possess specialised skills that not many do, you are unlikely to prove that under pressure within a couple of hours and certainly not to the level where you can have late 10s level of negotiating power imo.
At the end of the day, the market can stay irrational longer than you can continue refuse to accept a lower offer imo. I believe there will be winners. But pure technical skill isn't the moat you think it is. Not anymore.
