I'm long and strong $FB via the IPO, but I think we're going to have a year of pain before we're in the clear. Facebook needs to prove that they can continue grow-- not an easy feat for a company with huge market share. I want to see Facebook redefine the market by developing better ways to monetize the social graph (duh!). I think mobile has potential, particularly outside of the US, but success will require great execution. It will be interesting to see if Facebook can retain talent with options priced off the public valuation and a stock that is stagnating (or worse, declining).
Sadly, you're going to lose a lot of money. Facebook cannot possibly bring in the required revenue for growth. Their base will erode far faster than new business will come on board. The IPO was the bubble bursting, making the insiders rich, and laying the ruin for everyone who jumped in.
But they "only" sold 18 billion, that leaves insiders still holding 92 billion of FB. If this were really a bubble bursting wouldn't the rich insiders be holding a much smaller chunk of the fool's gold.
He made billions on the IPO... I think that he is less concerned with the future of Facebook than you think. They'll no doubt attempt to provide shareholder value, but will likely find it impossible without truly turning to the dark side. In the end, it can be sold off, and he'll still be set for life.
