Still a lot better than cable since you can watch what you want in real time and no commercials.

Also you really don't need to subscribe to all of them. Who needs that much content? I can't even keep up with my Netflix or YouTube queue, let alone the others. I have Amazon Prime, but never use it. HBO for a couple shows, but could subscribe only during their seasons.

When cable was first introduced there were no commercials...

Exactly. As soon as these streaming services become ubiquitous and irreplaceable, they will go the route of cable and start trying to milk the cow for all it's worth.

They are already doing that. Amazon Prime Video annoys the shit out of me with those stupid ads for other shows shown before a series episode actually starts.

It is just a small step from this kind of self-promotion to showing ads for stuff on Amazon. After all, they have my purchasing and article browsing profile and could easily try to find articles that I might be inclined to buy. I would put some bucks on the line betting that we will see something like that in the next 5 years.

One thing with cable was that there was never a feasible way to offer separate packages with and without ads. (Yes, there were specific channels that didn't have them, but there was never a technically feasible way to do that across all channels.)

With streaming, we can avoid this because it's possible offer packages:

Price X includes ads

Price X+Y has no ads

As long as Y is something enough consumers are willing to pay, you can always price yourself out of the ad-watching category by paying more. The trouble with out conventional "freebie" internet services as we know them is there aren't enough people willing to pay the additional Y.

All signs point to us being back to what we had when cable was prominent. Different lipstick on the same pig.

5. Users eventually figure out they are paying way too much for random platforms they watch once or twice a month with the exception of a yearly season binge for that 1 show they continue to subscribe for.

6. Users begin to drop from platforms.

7. Platforms realize the masses are fatigued from dealing with 5-10 different apps, multiple monthly payments, queues, sifting through tons of mediocre exclusive content, etc. They decide to create a God Platform that manages multiple "channels" through a single subscription.

8. Users love it, flocking to the new God Platform.

9. ?

9. Members of the God Platform realize that each entity being logically separate and needing to be independently profitable hurts the entire platform so they move to a combined subscription model where user revenue is shared depending on the size and popularity of the content provider.

10. The new model ensures that content producers compete at the contract negotiation level and don't manifest in user-visible price differences so the price of content gradually shifts away from the cost of production and up to customers' willingness to pay since all content producers are singular in the intent to maximize total user revenue.

11. Access to this God Platform is pretty much ubiquitous and ISPs try to differentiate themselves by bundling discounted subscriptions as part of their internet package. People love it and gradually move over.

12. Once every ISP offers the service the discount evaporates as it's no longer a differentiating feature.

13. ?

Switch 2 and 3 and you can see what the issue is.

Content creators can easily create distribution platforms of their own. So if you're Disney? Well, why deal with Netflix?

Netflix et al are then in a bind, in that they eventually have less and less content, so they start making content.

It's kind of a vicious circle.

But also, now a lot more art exists in the world that would otherwise have never have been created!

Sure it's annoying to view, but it's out there! (Note, it's annoying, not necessarily expensive! You can subscribe to a different service each month.)

I like this perspective. Honestly if it's not worth $16 of your pay per month, don't pay for it! There's so much more stuff out there. You don't need to see everything. There's so much more content being produced now that you don't need to pay for it all to have endless entertainment.

I would not be surprised if step 5. is a platform that is essentially an aggregation of different platforms which pays out royalties/fees to each of the individual services and thus completes the digital recreation of cable TV.

To the large extent this is how Amazon Video (or Hulu) works - you can subscribe not only to Prime Video, but also to HBO, Starz, CBS, etc. Which have subscription services of their own.

Without exclusive content what bargaining power does the platform have?