If anything, this is a clear illustration of poor use of probabilistic prediction. When used for investments you have many outcomes. If the model is any good, you will most of them right. In the World Cup you have very few. Even if you count all games played. Definitely not excusing Goldman Sachs here, they should have known better than to try to predict this. There was only a tiny chance this could be great advertisement for their model.
> they should have known better than to try to predict this.
There's no downside, only free publicity. If they, by good fortune and a following wind, get it right - then the publicity is incredible. If it's wrong they laugh and say "well, better stick to predicting what we're good at!" and they still get a shitload of headlines and awareness of their product.
