I'm a product manager at a telematics company. I've talked to a lot of folks in the long haul trucking space, from drivers to back office folks to service managers. I'll be surprised if this truck catches on. The trucking industry has a huge urge to do everything themselves, all the big guys have full service garages in their many yards across the country. This truck seems essentially unserviceable by anyone other than Tesla, which will be a showstopper for many of the big guys at least for a while.
I will say that I'm impressed by their charging numbers if they can hit them though. Fuel is a huge concern for carriers, they reroute to save a cent on the gallon constantly. Getting enough super chargers in place will be key for these things.
Also, as a side thought: they could have had a much more impactful reveal by having one of the big carrier's trailers hitched to that thing. Makes me wonder how much they even went and talked to their potential customers, especially drivers, who are very...particular...about their machines.
"The big guys won't go for it. Therefore, it won't succeed". That's a recipe for somebody who isn't a "big guy" to start their business literally this instant, and outcompete the "big guys" in five years because they were able to throw off the shackles of tradition and learn from the past as well as embracing current technology.
The harsh truth is that most times it _does_ work out for the "big guys".
5 years is a lot of time for the "big guy"-compliant suppliers like Daimler to catch up (I can't personally evaluate if there is even a lot of catching up to do, as Tesla tries to present). Especially in low-margin industries like transportation that are also highly dependent on overall market strength, the odds are stacked very much in favor of big players that are able to position themselves for slow and stable growth. Close-to-worst scenario for the big guys is that a new player gains a significant market share and they have to purchase them for a big premium.
It also seems that you underestimate the willingness to embrace new technologies in the trucking industry, which they have ingrained to survive in a low-margin industry. They won't like it not because it is any kind of innovation, but because they would be giving away significant control. The big guys are so resilient and successful because they try to have a hold of the supply-chain as much as possible, to be more independent of outside forces, which is exactly the same game Tesla (and Apple, etc.) are playing with their manufacturing partners.
I am generally not a Tesla fan, but I'm impressed by this truck. I think you're focusing on the wrong end of things here. In fact, your later objection answers your first!
The drivers and service managers can be as skeptical as they want to be. The company owners can replace those drivers or service managers.
The big dogs care about the bottom line, and their employees have felt the pinch all along. This will be no different.
I wouldn't be surprised if there is a lobbying battle that ensues after these types of vehicles become available. With transport and shipping being such large targets in regards to emissions, banning or phasing out fossil fuels will make electric semis inevitable.
I guess the question then would be how quickly the current manufacturers can supply an offering. Manufacturers with existing business relationships and greater domain knowledge would be in a much better market position than Tesla. Being first may not help them here.
Tesla has to design and develop an entire truck, existing manufacturers just have to develop the drivetrain and plonk it in established product lines with the kinks of semi transport already ironed out.
> I wouldn't be surprised if there is a lobbying battle that ensues after these types of vehicles become available. With transport and shipping being such large targets in regards to emissions, banning or phasing out fossil fuels will make electric semis inevitable.
In Europe maybe, but the USA are still their main market, and the way things are going right now, regulations probably won't develop in their favor in the important timeframe.
Yep, big rigs are just a couple of tires and brakes. No glass, shocks, computer systems, hitches, cabling for trailers, lights, body pieces, or anything else.
I get what you are saying, but do remember Elon made a huge point of saying they are going for massive reliability, and have a 1,000,000 mile warranty on this thing.
Do you think other semi-truck producers don't engineer for "massive reliability"? They do, and even then all kinds of parts break from time to time, as that is inevitable for physical machines in use. Unless Tesla packages their vehicles with a force-field generator and an "anti-wear-and-tear"-machine to prevent all malfunctions, I don't see how they would make significant leaps in anything other than the drivetrain. Predictive maintenance, which is already a thing in modern trucks also eases the problem of wear and tear failures.
The "unbreakable" glass felt mainly like a marketing gimmick, and I'll believe it when I see it. Also, keep in mind that two years in the future, when the truck comes out, "unbreakable" glass might very realistically be a feature competitors have caught up on.
I understand and don't disagree with what you are saying, but it is worth remembering the Tesla has an order of magnitude (or two) less moving parts than any of those existing big rigs. There are simply much, much less parts to wear out.
> Also, keep in mind that two years in the future, when the truck comes out, "unbreakable" glass might very realistically be a feature competitors have caught up on.
We're not discussing what competitors are doing. We're discussing how much maintenance the Tesla will need, which has nothing to do with competitors products.
If you want to have a discussion about if the Tesla is competitive, that's a whole nother thing
Big rigs are some of the most reliable machines in the world, they regularly rack up millions of miles while in service. And they take a hell of a beating while doing it.
All the other manufacturers have been "going for massive reliability" for decades.
I will say that I'm impressed by their charging numbers if they can hit them though. Fuel is a huge concern for carriers, they reroute to save a cent on the gallon constantly. Getting enough super chargers in place will be key for these things.
Also, as a side thought: they could have had a much more impactful reveal by having one of the big carrier's trailers hitched to that thing. Makes me wonder how much they even went and talked to their potential customers, especially drivers, who are very...particular...about their machines.